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June 19, 11:06
(FXStreet)
Flash: Fed signals to be few and far between? – Deutsche Bank
Continua a leggere
FXstreet.com (New York) - According to Macro Strategy Analysts J. Reid and C. Tan at Deutsche Bank, “Our gut feel is that the Fed will err on the side of caution with regards to tapering talk and that no additional signal will be given by the Chairman to accelerate the market's fears.”
However this view is more based on the fact that it's a personal view that it would be a policy error to withdraw stimulus today. Indeed the last two quarters have seen the lowest US nominal GDP since Q1 in 2010 - some 13 quarters ago now. This is a weakening nominal recovery and one that even at its peak was still very weak relative to history.
With a huge debt load nominal GDP is very important but it gets far less attention than it deserves. “Nevertheless, the Fed may think very differently to us and their updated economic forecasts will shape their thinking to some degree. They may see the recent dip in inflation as transitory.” they add.
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June 19, 11:02
(FXStreet)
US MBA Mortgage Applications: -3.3% in Jun 14 from 5%
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FXstreet.com (Barcelona)
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June 19, 10:50
(FXStreet)
US Dollar Index flat around 80.80
Continua a leggere
FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) - The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar index, is posting meagre gains on Wednesday, following the lack of direction in the markets ahead of the FOMC statement due this evening.
In light of the main event for the USD this week, that is the FOMC meeting and press conference by Chief Bernanke, Strategist Stephen Gallo at BMO commented, “Once tapering begins, the marginal decrease in the level of asset purchases will probably depend on how the data develop. Before tapering begins however, the focus on the part of the Fed may be to limit the most obvious negative externality of QE, which have been the distortions caused in asset prices… If so, the high-yield space remains modestly vulnerable versus the USD – but just modestly”.
At the moment the index is up 0.05% at 80.79 facing the next hurdle at 81.00, 81.30 and 81.60 while support levels line up at 80.50, 80.20 and 80.00.
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June 19, 10:46
(FXStreet)
Flash: Fed to sound less dovish but not expected to taper yet - TD Securities
Continua a leggere
FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - At today's FOMC meeting, the Fed is expected to maintain its accommodative policy stance, with only slight upgrades to the economic assessment provided in the statement, says the TD Securities analyst team.
According to TD analysts, the Fed will issue a relatively less dovish statement and upbeat economic assessment, but how market reacts will be determined in large part by the narrative that develops at the subsequent press conference. "We expect the Chairman to use the conference as a platform for emphasizing the message that the Fed is still easing policy, albeit at a reduced level".
"That said, with the market appearing to be positioned for a September tapering announcement, the price action is not likely to be driven by a tapering signal, but instead by any indications on the size of tapering", TD says. "At the moment, we see the Fed reducing its monthly purchase size by between $10B and $15B. This also seems to be the level of reduction currently being priced into the markets".
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June 19, 10:32
(FXStreet)
European equities record modest gains
Continua a leggere
FXstreet.com (New York) - The European stock again traded higher Wednesday, modestly rising ahead of the FOMC later today.
European data in short supply
Earlier today in the EMU, Consutruction Output w.d.a. (YoY) fell -6.6% in April, compared to a figure of -7.3% previously. Finally, Construction Output s.a. (MoM) yielded +2.0% in April, improving from -1.8% previously.
Beginning with commodities, the prices of gold and silver are trading at session lows, trading more specifically at USD $1368.18 and $21.65 per oz. respectively. In addition, the price of crude is operating at USD $98.94/bbl Wednesday.
Equities record consecutive daily gains
Moving to indices and composites, the EURO STOXX 50 rose +0.25% as it settles in region of 2707.66, up +6.73 points in these moments. In addition, the FTSE 100 moved higher Wednesday, operating at 6377.58 ascending +3.37 points or +0.05% at the time of writing. Finally, the DAX has strengthened recently as well, trading in the zone of 8275.04 presently +0.55% after a movement of +45.53 points.
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June 19, 10:26
(FXStreet)
EUR/GBP bounce capped by 0.8580
Continua a leggere
FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - After a limited setback, EUR/GBP managed to resume the upside and rose back to near the top of its recent range as the sterling weakened on the back of the BoE minutes.
EUR/GBP bounced from a low of 0.8548 scored earlier during the European session and reached a daily high of 0.8578 before losing momentum and pulling back slightly. At time of writing, EUR/GBP is trading at the 0.8575 area, up 0.2% on the day, and not far from its 3-week high of 0.8583 hit on Tuesday.
EUR/GBP technical levels
In terms of technical levels, immediate resistances are seen at 0.8583 (Jun 18 high) and 0.8600 (psychological level), while on the downside, supports could be faced at the 0.8545 area (daily lows/100-day SMA) followed by 0.8530 (20-day SMA).
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June 19, 10:26
(FXStreet)
Flash: Inverse H&S looms for Bunds – RBS
Continua a leggere
FXstreet.com (New York) - A bullish opening gap (potential inside session) coupled with looming Inverse Head and Shoulders confirm there are more chances of recovery for Bunds in the near-term.
According to Technical Strategist Dmytro Bondar at RBS, “This comes on the heels of a Morning Star (using a blending technique) and 143.94 level breakout. The main targets would be 144.55 and 145.00/13 and ultimately 145.43. An initial reaction from the 143.94 level was expected not altering the view as long as the price remains above 142.95. The long-term view however is negative, so a bounce would be seen as a L/T selling opportunity.”
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June 19, 10:10
(FXStreet)
EUR/SEK keeps lows after Swedish data
Continua a leggere
FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) - The Swedish krona is markedly appreciating against the bloc currency on Wednesday, dragging EUR/SEK to session lows around 8.5800 on positive data from Sweden.
EUR/SEK focused on the Riksbank
Regarding the Nordic economy, Consumer Confidence for the month of June improved to 4.3 from 3.6 while the Business Confidence followed suit, up to 3 from 0 in the same period. Further data also showed that the unemployment rate ticked lower to 8.2% in May, bettering the median and April’s reading at 8.7%. These data add to the recent improvement in other fundamental indicators of Sweden, adding extra pressure to the Riksbank in light of the next monetary policy meeting.
EUR/SEK tech levels
As of writing, the cross is retreating 0.48% at 8.5865 with the next support at 8.5550 (MA200d) followed by 8.5460 (low Jun.4) and then 8.5305 (low May 22). On the upside, a break above 8.6575 (high Jun.18) would clear the way to 8.7635 (high Jun.11) and finally 8.7770 (high Dec.18 2012).
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June 19, 10:00
(FXStreet)
Spain Trade Balance (May): €-0.16B vs €0.6B (April)
Continua a leggere
FXstreet.com (Barcelona)
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June 19, 09:55
(FXStreet)
USD/CHF clinging to 0.9200 region
Continua a leggere
FXstreet.com (New York) - The USD/CHF foreign exchange rate remained situated at the 0.9200 barrier on the heels of German bond auction Wednesday, as the pair meekly remains positive.
In Germany, a 10-year Bond auction witnessed results of 1.55%, which climbed from +1.41% previously.
At the time of writing, the USD/CHF is still nestled 0.9204, up a modest +0.4% during European trading. Given the narrow consolidation, Mataf.net analysts point to the next level of resistive correction for the USD/CHF at 0.9251, then 0.9300, and 0.9338. Meanwhile, support lies below at 0.9164, onto 0.9126, and 0.9077.
USD/CHF extension of bearish move favored
According to the Technical Analyst Team at ICN.com, “The USD/CHF consolidated below 0.9210 levels and bottom C of the AB=CD bearish harmonic Pattern. Based on the technical harmonic analysis, stability below 0.9210 favors the extension of the bearish move.”
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June 19, 09:54
(FXStreet)
Flash: North America outlook - BTMU
Continua a leggere
FXstreet.com (London) - Derek Halpenny at The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Ltd said the decline in the implied yield of the federal funds rate in March 2015 is unlikely to continue much further.
He expect today’s communication from Chairman Bernanke to include the following: 1) that QE3 tapering in the coming months is possible; 2) but that the timing is dependent on incoming economic/market information; 3) that tapering is merely about slowly taking the foot off the accelerator rather than putting the foot on the brake and 4) that the time for the brake (raising the federal funds rate) is still unlikely before 2015.
He continues to suggest the fact that tapering is dependent on incoming data will be emphasised, as it is the flexibility of QE3 that makes this time different to the sharp declines in asset prices after the end of QE1 and QE2. When the dust settles, he expects the dollar to hold in and slowly begin to strengthen once again as the incoming data starts to confirm the probability of tapering in September or October.
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June 19, 09:48
(FXStreet)
Germany 10-y Bond Auction increase to 1.55% from 1.41%
Continua a leggere
FXstreet.com (Barcelona)
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June 19, 09:46
(FXStreet)
Flash: EM’s with USD/ZAR higher – TD Securities
Continua a leggere
FXstreet.com (London) - Cristian Maggio at TD Securities said that a bout of unexpectedly positive data in South Africa pushed USD/ZAR sharply below 10.0 moments after the release of the May CPI and Q1 current account.
The first release he said was the C/A deficit at 5.8% of GDP (seasonally adjusted), a substantial improvement compared to the 6.5% gap recorded in Q4 2012 and an even more dramatic move vs. the 6.9% consensus expectations (TD: 6.8%). As the widening external gap in S. Africa has been definitely feeding into market concerns in the recent months, the C/A data was enough to inflate optimism today he explained.
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June 19, 09:43
(FXStreet)
NZD/USD trading at resistance
Continua a leggere
FXstreet.com (New York) - The NZD/USD foreign exchange rate rebounded to session highs, following an overnight trough that witnessed heavy selling action to start off the week.
NZD/USD overnight data fails to surprise
Overnight in New Zealand, the Current Account (QoQ) came in at $-0.660B in Q1, in line with consensus expectations, and compared with a figure of $-3.232B previously. Moreover, the Current Account – GDP ratio (Q1) fell -4.8%, matching estimates, and improving from a figure of -5.0% last quarter.
At the time of writing, the NZD/USD technical rate bounce off earlier lows (0.7960) overtake the 0.8000 barrier and settle at 0.8017. According to the Mataf.net analyst team, the pair will look to summit calculated resistance at 0.8015, then 0.8054, onto 0.8088. On the decline, a break below the 0.7942 handle will initiate support at 0.7908 and 0.7869.
NZD/USD solid support at 0.7920 offers room for uptrend
According to the ICN.com Technical Analyst Team, “The NZD/USD received solid support at 0.7920 as it withstood against all of the pair's bearish attempts, helping us propose an uptrend. Ultimately, the pair must settle above 0.8065 in order to confirm the uptrend's return.”
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June 19, 09:40
(FXStreet)
USD/JPY hovering over 95.00
Continua a leggere
FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The USD/JPY trades a tad lower on the day, hovering barely above the 95.00 mark as investors remain sidelined ahead of the Fed announcement.
USD/JPY remains rangebound
After being rejected once again by the 95.70 zone, USD/JPY came under pressure and briefly dipped below the 95.00 mark to hit a low of 94.82. Despite this drop, the USD remains broadly steady trading inside its recent range as markets await the FOMC decision on monetary policy.
At time of writing, USD/JPY is trading at the 95.00/10 area, where it is 0.3% below its opening price. From a technical view, "The recent bounce to 95.73 could be the end of the consolidation pattern above 93.75 and a break through 94.20 low will set the focus on 92.70-50 support area", says Stoyan Mihaylov, analyst at DeltaStock.com.
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June 19, 09:40
(FXStreet)
Flash: EUR/USD a conundrum - Societe Generale
Continua a leggere
FXstreet.com (London) - Kit Juckes at Societe Generale mentioned that the dollar has been a conundrum to clients - with EUR/USD settling above 1.3400.
His underlying thought is still not to sell it below 1.3600, but more particularly not until relative rate trends become more helpful. He notes that 2y/2y US rates are up about 60bp since the start of May, but 2y/2y euro rates aren't far behind, up 43bp. He feels the current 1.22% in 2y/2y Euros is too high, but can be dragged even higher by the next leg of the US move.
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June 19, 09:32
(FXStreet)
EUR/JPY entrenched in negative territory
Continua a leggere
FXstreet.com (New York) - The EUR/JPY technical cross stalled at the 127.40 level Wednesday, following a mild recovery attempt in the aftermath of European economic data.
EUR/JPY devoid of sweeping changes after EMU data
In the EMU, Consutruction Output w.d.a. (YoY) fell -6.6% in April, compared to a figure of -7.3% previously. Finally, Construction Output s.a. (MoM) yielded +2.0% in April, improving from -1.8% previously.
At the time of writing, the EUR/JPY pair is still entrenched in negative territory at 127.37 or a -0.27% thus far. Given the recent levels of debilitation, Mataf.net analysts calculate supportive measures for the pair at 126.83, ahead of 125.76 and 125.12. On the upside, a break below the 128.54 handle will initiate resistance at 129.18 and 130.25.
EUR/JPY to test 50-day SMA?
The EUR/JPY extended an anticipated rebound, as the price reached 128.00-128.10 resistance yesterday. However, the aforementioned resistance may temporarily halt the bullish rebound, and push price lower, perhaps retesting the 50-day SMA around 129.30-129.50 Overall, the bullish scenario may extend a bit further, given that 125.00 key support remains intact.
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June 19, 09:29
(FXStreet)
EUR/USD stuck around 1.3400
Continua a leggere
FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) - The EUR/USD remains in a consolidation mode around 1.3400 the figure on Wednesday, isolated from any other events/results ahead of the FOMC gathering.
EUR/USD in a narrow range
The euro preserves the narrow range since yesterday’s close in Wall St., basically between 1.3380 and roughly 1.3400 as market participants remain cautious on the Fed’s announcements later on today. “A ‘hawkish’ FOMC should thus be able to send EUR/USD lower by about the same amount as a ‘dovish’ FOMC should be able to send EUR/USD higher. In our main scenario, there should be little price action on the currency market, as this should not move the market pricing of QE tapering much”, commented Kasper Kirkegaard, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank.
EUR/USD key levels
At the moment the pair is flat at 1.3392 and a surpass of 1.3411 (high Jun.19) would target 1.3416 (high Jun.18) en route to 1.3456 (high Feb.14). On the downside, support levels align at 1.3338 (hourly low Jun.18) ahead of 1.3326 (MA10d) and finally 1.3325 (low Jun.18).
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June 19, 09:24
(FXStreet)
Flash: EUR poised to challenge tough resistance at 1.3454/57 - Commerzbank
Continua a leggere
FXstreet.com (London) - Karen Jones at Commerzbank said that the EUR/USD charted a minor new high.
Overhead lies 1.3440/52, the 200 week ma and the 2011-2013 resistance line. She explains that this is key resistance and she looks for this to hold and provoke failure.
They said we will need to see a break below the June 10th low at 1.3177 in order to alleviate immediate upside pressure. “A drop below this level would lead to the 55+ 200 day moving average at 1.3072/3 being targeted”. Below these levels, she sights support at 1.2838/1.2796 which guards the 1.2740 April low and resistance at 1.3510 (78.6% retracement) is seen by her as the last defense for the 1.3711 2013 high.
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June 19, 09:22
(FXStreet)
GBP/USD trading at session off lows
Continua a leggere
FXstreet.com (New York) - The GBP/USD technical pair has continued grinding lower Wednesday to a session low of 1.5608, on the heels of the BoE minutes earlier today during European trading.
GBP/USD fresh upside attempt expected
According to the Technical Analyst Team at ICN.com, “The GBP/USD faced negative pressure yesterday, though it wasn’t enough to confirm four-hour stability below 1.5605. Therefore, the positive possibility is still valid for today – the pair has to stabilize now above 1.5685 to confirm the bullish wave, but we will count on the positive linear regression indicators to expect a new attempt to the upside.”
GBP/USD intact above support
Amidst the recent pullback Wednesday, the GBP/USD is now settling at 1.5608 in these moments, incurring a loss of -0.22% off it’s opening. With FOMC insights scheduled for later today, the Mataf.net analyst team points to the next levels of supportive correction at 1.5554, ahead of 1.5482, and finally 1.5399. Conversely, the pair will face resistance at 1.5709, onto 1.5792, and eventually 1.5864.
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June 19, 09:17
(FXStreet)
USD/CAD rejected at daily resistance
Continua a leggere
FXstreet.com (London) - USD/CAD failed at 1.02450 and has since been drifting lower to test support 1.0200.
USD/CAD Data
USD/CAD will be reacting to FOMC a little later on as well as Bank of Canada’s new Govener, Mr.Poloz who is talking tonight on the topic of “Recovery: Rebuilding Business Confidence in Canada.” Markets will be watching closely to see if he sticks to the same script that he did during his appearance before Parliament a couple of weeks ago, which was very much in line with Carney’s tone, according to Alvin Pontoh at TD Securities
USD/CAD leaning lower
USD/CAD is titling south and away from the key resistance at 1.2070 in an otherwise short term upside trend. EMA20 at 1.0215 and the pivot with EMA50 at 1.0202 acts as support for now with the negative linear regression indicators kicking in before the market plays with the rhetoric which will come in this afternoon.
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June 19, 09:13
(FXStreet)
USD/CHF recovers the 0.9200 barrier
Continua a leggere
FXstreet.com (New York) - The USD/CHF foreign exchange rate fell off a cliff Tuesday, breaking through support after the release of economic data in the EMU and Germany.
USD/CHF reacts to European data
In Switzerland, the ZEW Survey – Expectations was reported at 2.2 in June, matching expectations. Meanwhile in the EMU, Consutruction Output w.d.a. (YoY) fell -6.6% in April, compared to a figure of -7.3% previously. Finally, Construction Output s.a. (MoM) yielded +2.0% in April, improving from -1.8% previously.
In these moments, the pair is trading at 0.9207, up a mild +0.06% above it’s opening. Technically speaking, Mataf.net analysts identify the next short-term measures of resistance at 0.9251, then 0.9300, and 0.9338. Meanwhile, support lies below at 0.9164, onto 0.9126, and 0.9077.
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June 19, 09:09
(FXStreet)
EMU: Construction Output grows 2% in April
Continua a leggere
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Eurozone Construction Output s.a. rose by 2% in April, compared with the 1.8% decrease in March, according to the report released today by the Eurostat.
On an annual basis the Eurozone Construction Output plunged 6.6% in April, following a 7.3% drop the previous month.
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June 19, 09:06
(FXStreet)
EU Construction Output w.d.a (YoY): -6.6% in April from -7.3% in March
Continua a leggere
FXstreet.com (Barcelona)
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June 19, 09:05
(FXStreet)
EU Construction Output s.a (MoM) increase 2% in April from -1.8% in March
Continua a leggere
FXstreet.com (Barcelona)
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June 19, 09:02
(FXStreet)
Switzerland: ZEW Survey – Expectations steady at 2.2 in June
Continua a leggere
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The Swiss ZEW Survey – Expectations remained unchanged at 2.2 points in June the Centre for European Economic Research reported on Wednesday.
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June 19, 09:00
(FXStreet)
Switzerland Jun ZEW Survey - Expectations remains at 2.2.
Continua a leggere
FXstreet.com (Barcelona)
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June 19, 08:54
(FXStreet)
BoE Minutes: MPC voted 6-3 to keep QE unchanged
Continua a leggere
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - BoE Minutes from the MPC monetary policy meeting held on 5 and 6 June and released today reveal that the Committee voted unanimously in favor of maintaining the interest rate at 0.5%.
As far as the proposition to continue with the program of asset purchases totaling £375 billion is concerned, six MPC members voted in favor while three voted against. Governor Mervyn King, David Miles and Paul Fisher who voted against preferred to boost the QE program by £25 billion to a total of £400 billion.
According to the minutes, the MPC agreed that “although there had been little news on UK real activity on the month, the developments had generally been positive and followed a sequence of small improvements in earlier months.”
The majority of the MPC members did not consider a further increase of the asset purchase program necessary as they could already see a more established recovery in the UK. Governor Mervyn King, David Miles and Paul Fisher argued however that “the news on activity on the month had been reassuring but the outlook was no stronger than had been incorporated
into the May Inflation Report projections.” They suggested that the recovery was not as strong as would be desired and that unemployment was still high. The unstable situation in the Eurozone could also harm the UK economy. Therefore, “additional asset purchases now would allow an earlier normalization of the monetary stance.”
As this was the last BoE monetary policy meeting chaired by Governor Mervyn King, MPC members thanked him for his work over the years.
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June 19, 08:44
(FXStreet)
GBP/USD easing to 1.5630 on BoE minutes
Continua a leggere
FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) - The renewed weakness around the sterling is now driving the GBP/USD to test session lows around 1.5630.
GBP/USD losing momentum
The minutes have shown once again the same voting pattern to keep interest rate intact at 0.5%, 9-0, and 6-3 in favour of leaving the asset purchase programme unchanged at £375 billion, with King, Fisher and Miles advocating for an increase to £400 billion.
GBP/USD key levels
At the moment the pair is down 0.07% at 1.5631 with the next support at 1.5619 (low Jun.19) ahead of 1.5565 (low Jun.18) and finally 1.5521 (low Jun.11). On the upside, a break above 1.5696 (MA200d) would open the door to 1.5723 (high Jun.18) and then 1.5753 (high Jun.17).
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June 19, 08:41
(FXStreet)
EUR/GBP spikes up on BoE minutes
Continua a leggere
FXstreet.com (London) - EUR/GBP has ticked up higher to fall short at 0.8573 after the release of the BoE minutes.
The vote was unanimous with regards to rates being left on hold, 9 -0. However, there was a split with regards to their bond purchasing programme and QE with 6-3 split, essentially echoing previous months. EUR/GBP is struggling now at overnight highs and daily channel resistance in a descending trend line on the hourly chart.
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